In recent years, China’s nonferrous metals industry has developed rapidly, making China the world’s largest producer and consumer of nonferrous metals. Output of key nonferrous metals including aluminum, copper, lead, zinc, tungsten, antimony, molybdenum and rare earths ranks among the top globally. However, the industry now faces two prominent challenges: first, intensifying involution-style competition, in which processing fees in some smelting sectors have even fallen below the cost line, leaving capacity expansion trapped in a vicious cycle of “producing more while losing more”; second, as a typical energy-intensive industry, the nonferrous metals sector is under severe pressure for energy conservation and carbon reduction amid the advancement of the “dual carbon” goals.
With the 14th Five-Year Plan period drawing to a close and the 15th Five-Year Plan about to begin, how can the nonferrous metals industry achieve anti-involution and stable growth? Insiders believe that with the implementation of a series of recent policies, such as the Announcement on Curbing Disorderly Price Competition and Maintaining Sound Market Price Order issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation, as well as the Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025–2026) jointly released by eight ministries including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, China’s nonferrous metals industry will embark on a path of high-end, intelligent and green development.
Overall Stable Industry Performance
According to recent data from the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association (CNMIA), China’s nonferrous metals industry maintained stable performance in the first three quarters of this year, with rapid growth across multiple core indicators including industrial added value, output of ten nonferrous metals, fixed-asset investment, total profits and total import and export volume. Against this backdrop, annual output, revenue, profits and other indicators are expected to hit record highs.
Specifically, data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the industrial added value of nonferrous metals enterprises above designated size rose by 7.8% year-on-year in the first three quarters, 1.6 percentage points higher than the overall growth rate of industrial added value nationwide. Fixed-asset investment in the nonferrous metals industry increased by 10.1% year-on-year over the same period, 3.7 percentage points above the national average for industrial investment.
In terms of prices, traditional industrial metals such as copper and aluminum as well as precious metals strengthened, while new energy metals were generally weak. In the domestic spot market during the first three quarters, the average copper price stood at 78,285 yuan per tonne, up 4.8% year-on-year; the average aluminum price was 20,446 yuan per tonne, up 3.7% year-on-year. Supported by safe-haven demand, the domestic average gold price reached 745.4 yuan per gram, surging 41% year-on-year.
Amid the overall positive industry trend, revenue and profits of nonferrous metals enterprises above designated size continued to grow rapidly. In the first three quarters, such enterprises achieved operating revenue of 73.9801 trillion yuan, up 14.6% year-on-year, with total profits of 345.15 billion yuan, an increase of 18.7% year-on-year.
Challenges Facing Industry Development
“Yet it should be noted that the industry is not improving across the board, and potential risks require vigilance,” said Lin Ruhai, Deputy Secretary-General of CNMIA. He stressed that the industry must face up to four deep-seated challenges.
First, prominent pressure on resource supply security: the external dependence of most strategic minerals such as copper and lithium remains persistently high, making resource security a daunting task.
Second, spreading risks of industry involution: disorderly competition has expanded from traditional sectors to new energy and high-end materials, constraining overall industrial efficiency.
Third, insufficient capacity for independent innovation: limited investment in basic research, slow breakthroughs in key technologies, and clear weaknesses in the stable supply and innovative application of high-end products.
Fourth, an increasingly complex trading environment: rising trade frictions targeting China’s nonferrous metals products, coupled with emerging trade restrictions such as technical barriers and green barriers.
Reporters from China Development and Reform News learned that processing fees remain depressed and severe involution persists in some nonferrous metals smelting sectors. Taking copper smelting as an example, the plunge in copper concentrate treatment charges (TC/RCs) serves as the most direct signal. The annual contract TC/RC for global copper concentrate fell to a historic low of 21.25 US dollars per tonne in 2025, while spot TC/RCs dropped to -44.73 US dollars per tonne in the first quarter (negative values mean smelters subsidize processing costs), far below the domestic break-even point of 30 US dollars per tonne. Despite meager profits, domestic refined copper capacity continued to expand rapidly. Output rose 10% year-on-year to 11.125 million tonnes in January–September 2025, with annual capacity expected to reach 16 million tonnes, accounting for nearly 50% of the global total. Some enterprises have resorted to low-price bidding and overreliance on by-product income to sustain cash flow, exacerbating cutthroat competition.
In response, Duan Shaopu, Deputy Secretary-General of CNMIA, stated that the nonferrous metals industry is indeed confronted with challenges of low processing fees and intensified competition, and anti-involution has become crucial for high-quality development.
“At present, serious involution-style competition exists in many nonferrous metals smelting and processing sectors, except for primary aluminum and some nonferrous metals mining operations, especially in metal extraction,” Duan noted. The harm of industry involution cannot be overlooked: it erodes the foundation of high-quality development, leads to insufficient innovation investment and massive wasted investment. Meanwhile, involution weakens enterprises’ bargaining power in raw material procurement, squeezes overall industry profit margins and undermines sustainable development.
Policy Support for Industry Anti-Involution and Stable Growth
In fact, relevant national authorities have rolled out a series of measures to curb involution. For instance, multiple ministries including MIIT jointly issued implementation plans for the high-quality development of copper, alumina, gold and other sectors this year, aiming to optimize industrial structure and curb low-level redundant construction. Four departments including the NDRC introduced the Notice on the Implementation of Policies Regulating Investment Promotion Activities, which standardizes local investment promotion and promotes fair competition. These policies have achieved initial results: by September, the growth rate of fixed-asset investment in nonferrous metals smelting and processing had dropped from 23% at the start of the year to 0.4%, indicating effective control of overheated investment.
In October, the NDRC and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued the Announcement on Curbing Disorderly Price Competition and Maintaining Sound Market Price Order, which proposes measures such as researching and assessing average industrial costs, strengthening price regulation and standardizing bidding practices, on the premise of protecting operators’ independent pricing rights, to safeguard a fair and competitive market environment.
Eight ministries including MIIT jointly released the Work Plan for Stable Growth of the Nonferrous Metals Industry (2025–2026), setting targets of around 5% annual growth in industrial added value and about 1.5% annual growth in output of ten nonferrous metals during 2025–2026, along with encouraging progress in domestic development of copper, aluminum, lithium and other resources.
In accordance with the Special Action Plan for Energy Conservation and Carbon Reduction in the Primary Aluminum Industry issued by five ministries including the NDRC and MIIT, the share of primary aluminum capacity meeting energy efficiency benchmark levels should reach 30% by 2025, capacity below benchmark levels should complete technical renovation or be phased out, and the proportion of renewable energy use should exceed 25%. This year, the industry has actively promoted large-scale energy-saving and carbon-reduction renovations and equipment upgrades among primary aluminum producers. At present, the share of capacity meeting energy efficiency benchmarks has reached 30%, and the proportion of renewable energy use reached 25% in 2024, both meeting targets ahead of schedule.
Industry Development Paths and Outlook
On implementation paths for anti-involution, CNMIA recommends targeted policies:
First, drawing on the experience of primary aluminum, consider setting capacity ceilings for bulk metals such as copper, lead and zinc to strictly control new capacity.
Second, promote mergers and restructuring of strategic metals to raise concentration and enhance industrial chain control.
Third, while maintaining full competition in deep processing, guide enterprises to transform toward personalized and high-value-added products to avoid homogeneous competition.
Primary aluminum is highly energy-intensive in industrial production. Statistically, producing one tonne of primary aluminum consumes about 13,000–15,000 kWh of electricity, equivalent to the annual power use of an ordinary household for 4–5 years. Since 2017, the state has imposed a capacity ceiling of approximately 45 million tonnes for primary aluminum, forcing structural optimization within the industry and shifting capacity from high energy-cost regions to areas with clean energy advantages.
Regarding industry performance characteristics, Chen Xuesen, Vice President of CNMIA, stated that China’s nonferrous metals industry has shown strong resilience amid a complex environment since this year.
First, policies governing rare earth metals carry prominent strategic significance. These measures effectively safeguard national resource security, prevent strategic resources from flowing into fields threatening national security, drive industrial upgrading toward the high-end value chain, and significantly enhance China’s voice and influence in global resource governance.
Second, the security system for critical mineral resources continues to strengthen. Responding to bottlenecks in resource security, nonferrous metals enterprises have stepped up exploration investment in key domestic metallogenic belts and deepened cooperation with resource-rich neighboring countries, striving to build a resource security system “focused on domestic supply and supplemented by overseas sources”.
Third, industry associations have effectively acted as a bridge between enterprises and the government. By smoothing information feedback channels, they promptly reflect prominent operational problems to relevant authorities, fostering a coordinated mechanism between government and enterprises.
CNMIA projects that China’s nonferrous metals industrial added value will grow by about 6% in 2025, with output of ten common nonferrous metals reaching 80 million tonnes and recycled metal output exceeding 20 million tonnes, further improving resource recycling efficiency. On profitability, operating revenue of nonferrous metals enterprises above designated size is expected to approach 10 trillion yuan, with total profits reaching around 450 billion yuan — both likely to set new records and fully achieve the industry development goals of the 14th Five-Year Plan.
“Amid the global green transition and the development of artificial intelligence, as well as the vigorous growth of new-quality productive forces represented by strategic emerging industries and future industries in China, the development prospects and space of the nonferrous metals industry are increasingly broad,” Chen said.
